(This is in response to Anyone for Tennis – a recent post by my friend Alison Mills – sorry for the delay, Alison).
On the Majority Must Be Right:
Alison Says:
Glenn seems to have slightly misunderstood my position on the ‘majority must be right’ argument, which is probably my fault for implying what I ought to have made explicit.
I understand her position perfectly, I think, and I happen to agree with it. Regardless of the true facts of a situation (and understanding you can make a statistic mean anything you want it to mean), it doesn’t matter whether or not the majority is in favour of something or not, to be honest – it doesn’t automatically follow that because a majority of people take a certain point of view that it is the correct point of view (assuming there is a correct point of view).
This assumption that the majority is always right is a dangerous fallacy – UNLESS the majority is sufficiently informed in a balanced way and fully understands the arguments.
My experience tells me that the majority is often wrong, which is why we have representational democracy as opposed to a vote on everything.
To make a final point on this – a vast majority of people watch soap operas and read the Sun newspaper. The majority are idiots.
Would you trust an idiot to make a decision on your life?
So I agree with the premise that to argue “you should believe something because the majority does” is insanity, because there are countless examples of the majority being wrong.
On what it will take:
Glenn goes on to say “I do not understand what it will take to convince some people that this probably wasn’t the best course of action.” I realise that this was probably meant as a rhetorical question, so it may be unfair of me to supply an answer, but I will anyway. A convincing argument. And if you could make it one that’s morally acceptable then I might even buy it.
Before I answer this point I want to make it quite clear that I am not anti-war, per se, I could be convinced to support a war, as long as I see more pros than cons. On this war I’ve seen more cons than pros, so my view reflects this.
As it stands, I’ve seen a lot of good reasons NOT to go to war but very few good ones in favour – I’ll try and spell out the various arguments as I see them, but also try to point out the problem with the argument…
In favour:
Saddam is an evil tyrant and dictator and the Iraqis are better off without him..
Of course he is, no one disagrees with that fact. It doesn’t follow that war was the appropriate way to achieve this end.
It is worth noting that I could argue here that what the Iraqis have now or will have in 2 years isn’t a great deal better and is getting worse – but I’m not going to – its easy to say something with the benefit of hindsight, but it can’t have been known beforehand so is an unfair argument.
What I felt was that the most appropriate would be to assist as much as possible with an internal uprising from the Iraqi people themselves – it always seems to me to be the most stable option with the best prospects of not descending into a mess – look at Serbia or Romania. I know there is the argument that this would just generate a Shia state, but I would have to say that you can’t know this in advance with any certainty. Its that hindsight thing again.
Weapons of Mass Destruction – He’s going to kill us all!!!
We all know about this one. They…er….didn’t turn up.
I suppose if I was being charitable, I could say that the Brit and US government were acting on the best of their knowledge at the time, but I’m not. There were plenty of indications that Iraq had nothing or not much by way of WMD and they were ignored. (For example – the various statements made by Scott Ritter (a former member of the inspection team in the 1998 inspections – he made the assertion that 95% of Iraqs WMD were destroyed by the time they left Iraq and the remaining 5% would have degraded by now) at the time. The cynic in me says they were ignored because they didn’t further the governments argument to go war. For the same reason, the little dossier we got was “strengthened” in order to make as strong a case as possible, leading to allegations of it being “sexed up”.
Iraq is in breach of (insert various UN resolutions here)
All I can say is…give me a resolution that really nails down the coalition of the willing to attack Iraq…I haven’t seen anything partically that convinces me of the legality of this war under international law – but I’m willing to do further reading on the subject.
Ok, heres the 3 main reasons for going to war. one we can discount (WMD), one I’m not convinced by (resolutions) and the other could have been handled differently.
So lets move onto the cons….
Increases threat of terrorism
Not on its own a reason NOT to go to war, but as part of a range of reasons this is credible. Theres plenty of evidence now that the Iraq war has increased tensions between the west and the middle east. Us appearing to act against Moslems surely serves as a rallying call for extremist groups. I’ve seen enough reports of terrorists talking about Iraq as a reason for attacks in Britain, to be convinced that we have made ourselves less safe.
Increases tension between the middle east and the west
Have our actions made the middle east more secure? or is the area more likely to go mad at a moments notice.
Before all this came about Iran was moving towards reform…now we are back to nutters in government. When people feel under threat they look to those that they feel could protect them and scared people are more easy to manipulate. Before our recent spate of interference in the middle east, several middle eastern countries were moving towards more liberal societies. Post Iraq the trend is back to the religious hard line. If there was indeed a goal of spreading democracy it seems ironic that our actions are having the reverse effect.
Afghanistan still needs sorting out
Forgive my spelling I suspect its wrong. The point is right, though. We still haven’t finished up our business in Afghanistan – at the moment Karsai’s government hold Kabal, the taleban holds the north, warlords hold the rest and its still a total mess. We need to clear up our messes before we move on to making new ones.
Iraq was NOT a pressing concern
With Osama Bin Laden still on the loose, I would’ve thought that catching him would be top priority, not this new adventure in Iraq that had nothing to do with terrorism.
Anyway, I’m tired so I’m going to wrap this one up.